Coronavirus

[Currywurst and Chips]

I dunno why you bother engaging. Unless missing the point and irrelevant links are your thing

[tuffers#1]

Oh oh
Here comes the Heavyweight
Of DCC

[Dunners]

Caca clearly enjoys getting 160'd.

[Long slender neck]

Guess how many coronavirus deaths a day in London currently..

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Over 500 deaths added to the total count yet again but it’s ok, 500 people didn’t really die today, they were in the past.

[Long slender neck]

Nobody is saying it's ok. But ask people how many are dying daily and they'll tell you the announced figure, the truth is it's about half that.

[StillSpike]

You keep talking up the timing difference - I'm sure you're not trying to play down the numbers, but I'm not sure the point you're trying to make.

If you ask someone how many are dying daily, yes, they'll tell you the announced figure - but you don't know that the truth is about half that, do you? What if the announced figure is, say, 500 - and that includes 250 from before today. But also, what if there's been 300 additional deaths today that haven't yet been included in the announced figures? Then that means todays "actual" total is really 550.

The one thing you can state unequivocally is that if you ask someone how many people have died to date, the the true number is guaranteed to be higher than the number that's been announced so far.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Nobody is saying it's ok. But ask people how many are dying daily and they'll tell you the announced figure, the truth is it's about half that.

You can’t keep adding on 500 deaths per day, as is happening, and still believe there’s only about 200 dying each day.

You get that isnt mathematically possible, right?

[Long slender neck]

You tell me Mr accountant. Depends how long you add 500 a day for, I reckon.

[StillSpike]

You're not CEB are you? Is this another "odds on the lottery" moment?

[Still's Carenae]

Our deaths per thousand this year are only slightly up on the last 2 years. This year looks like the highest since 2007, but it is less than 1950-2007.

Interestingly Swedens have dropped this year and Finlands risen.

To put things in a different persceptive Germany has a higher death rate per 1000 ithis year than us by 1.9 people, 11.3 against 9.4. USA is 8.88.

[tuffers#1]

Our deaths per thousand this year are only slightly up on the last 2 years. This year looks like the highest since 2007, but it is less than 1950-2007.

Interestingly Swedens have dropped this year and Finlands risen.

To put things in a different persceptive Germany has a higher death rate per 1000 ithis year than us by 1.9 people, 11.3 against 9.4. USA is 8.88.

Excess deaths in the UK 70,000+
Excess deaths in Germany not even close .

[Long slender neck]

So Christmas is going to 'cost us' another 25 day lockdown. I don't like the way that's worded.

[Long slender neck]

"SAGE used WIKIPEDIA to model Covid crisis in spring, did not have a single human coronavirus expert in its ranks, and wrongly predicted virus would peak in June rather than April, damning BBC documentary reveals"

[Clive Evans]

PW said ""SAGE used WIKIPEDIA to model Covid crisis in spring, did not have a single human coronavirus expert in its ranks, and wrongly predicted virus would peak in June rather than April, damning BBC documentary reveals"
Derisory comment. Covid 19 wasn't recognised as a disease until December 2019 & that was in far-off China, ( Hence Covid 19, doh! ). I don't therefore think there were many " experts " around in the UK in Spring 2020. Time for a bit of reality PW. Read and realise what you are up against!

[Long slender neck]

PW said ""SAGE used WIKIPEDIA to model Covid crisis in spring, did not have a single human coronavirus expert in its ranks, and wrongly predicted virus would peak in June rather than April, damning BBC documentary reveals"
Derisory comment. Covid 19 wasn't recognised as a disease until December 2019 & that was in far-off China, ( Hence Covid 19, doh! ). I don't therefore think there were many " experts " around in the UK in Spring 2020. Time for a bit of reality PW. Read and realise what you are up against!

There are lots of Coronaviruses and they were around long before December 2019. Doh!

[StillSpike]

Nobody is saying it's ok. But ask people how many are dying daily and they'll tell you the announced figure, the truth is it's about half that.

Excuse the repeat, but maybe I didn't make it clear I was addressing you:

"You keep talking up the timing difference - I'm sure you're not trying to play down the numbers, but I'm not sure the point you're trying to make.

If you ask someone how many are dying daily, yes, they'll tell you the announced figure - but you don't know that the truth is about half that, do you? What if the announced figure is, say, 500 - and that includes 250 from before today. But also, what if there's been 300 additional deaths today that haven't yet been included in the announced figures? Then that means todays "actual" total is really 550.

The one thing you can state unequivocally is that if you ask someone how many people have died to date, the the true number is guaranteed to be higher than the number that's been announced so far."

[Long slender neck]

Sorry Spike I must have missed your post.

On their statistics NHS England note that the 'data is likely to change' for the most recent 5 days, so after that time passes, most deaths will have been registered and added to the totals.

When I said the daily figure(not todays figure) is half, I was looking at the days that are about a week ago because that is the most recent reliable data and unlikely to change significantly. You can also look at the most recent 5 days and tell if those figures are likely to rise to 500 or whatever.

I guess my point is I dont want us to lose touch with reality.

The data is available here https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... ly-deaths/

[StillSpike]

Sorry Spike I must have missed your post.

On their statistics NHS England note that the 'data is likely to change' for the most recent 5 days, so after that time passes, most deaths will have been registered and added to the totals.

When I said the daily figure(not todays figure) is half, I was looking at the days that are about a week ago because that is the most recent reliable data and unlikely to change significantly. You can also look at the most recent 5 days and tell if those figures are likely to rise to 500 or whatever.

I guess my point is I dont want us to lose touch with reality.

The data is available here https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... ly-deaths/

Thanks for that. I get your point - I think - and certainly don't want to lose touch with reality.
The stats on that site, for yesterday, show 282 deaths in total (excluding any outside of hospitals, e.g. care homes etc). Of these, roughly half were for the previous day, the rest being for the few days prior to that. For example, 22 of that number were from last Friday. So my point was that when last Friday's numbers were released, they didn't include those 22 people. If we accept that, then it's logical to assume that there were people who did die in the 24 hours up to yesterday, but who's deaths have not been included in yesterday's numbers, and but will appear in the announcements in the next 4 or 5 days.

It's also worth just reiterating the point that those numbers are only for people dying in hospitals and not in care homes etc.

Whatever the numbers, it's still awful for these folk and their families.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Sorry Spike I must have missed your post.

On their statistics NHS England note that the 'data is likely to change' for the most recent 5 days, so after that time passes, most deaths will have been registered and added to the totals.

When I said the daily figure(not todays figure) is half, I was looking at the days that are about a week ago because that is the most recent reliable data and unlikely to change significantly. You can also look at the most recent 5 days and tell if those figures are likely to rise to 500 or whatever.

I guess my point is I dont want us to lose touch with reality.

The data is available here https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... ly-deaths/

Do those daily figures get updated for deaths not announced at that point in time?

[Long slender neck]

The spreadsheet is updated daily. You can compare versions and if you keep your eye on a particular day, see how it increases over time.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Ok, see what you mean now.

There's obviously an element of timing but the main reason for the difference between the daily 500+ deaths being announced and the 200-300 average on that spreadsheet is those dying in care homes. You are ignoring them. I know you hate the olds but they still count.

[Max B Gold]

I note that the excess deaths this year compared to the average of the last 5 years is up 70,000. Not what appears in the Coronofake stats.

That means the Tories have murdered thousands more than we thought.

[Long slender neck]

Ok, see what you mean now.

There's obviously an element of timing but the main reason for the difference between the daily 500+ deaths being announced and the 200-300 average on that spreadsheet is those dying in care homes. You are ignoring them. I know you hate the olds but they still count.

I didnt know about the care homes not being included, massive error on my part. Do the announced deaths include care homes?

[Smendrick Feaselberg]

20k cases reported yesterday, 19k today.

Think deaths are also down - 529 reported today compared to I think 598 yesterday.

Hopefully the start of a meaningful trend.

Just under 23k cases reported today, but the rolling 7 day rolling average is now down by 4k on the previous 7 day period. That's good news.

501 deaths reported today. The 7 day rolling average is up by 39 on the previous 7 day period, so hopefully deaths continue to slow too.